The main categories driving this decrease are the Dairy category and the Fish category.
According to Prestige Purchasing, Foodservice Price inflation rose for the first time again since August 2017 in December, however, the first month of 2018 continued the trend of the months leading up to Christmas, resulting in falling month-on-month food prices. In contrast, beverage prices dropped sharply over the festive period but have since increased again, although not to the same levels as in November. Overall, year-on-year Foodservice Price Inflation decreased to 2.5% in January from 5.1% in December. This figure, as also seen previously November, is lower than the representative figure for CPI, which displayed 3.7% year-on-year inflation.
The main categories driving this decrease are the Dairy category where prices have generally been dropping since August 2017, and the Fish category, where foodservice prices are now 4.7% lower than the average price in 2015, although given the volatility of this category this is expected to be short-lived.
Within the fish category, the price of salmon peaked between December 2016 and January 2017 and has since experienced a downward trend, almost having halved in price in November 2017. Whilst we predicted a seasonal increase over the Christmas period, the price only increased moderately, resulting in strong deflation for this product within Fish.
In dairy, the cost of butter sharply increased due to shortages in May 2017 and remained higher than at any point in 2016 until November, before dropping back to similar levels as seen the year before in December and January.
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