Cafés rise as restaurants feel the pinch in consumer spending shift
Cafés and coffee shops saw spending rise 5%, whilst food-to-go increased by 2%.
Consumers are cutting back on traditional restaurant visits and shifting more of their spending towards cafés, coffee shops, and food-to-go operators as household budgets remain under pressure, according to CACI’s data.
The data, which compares spending in the first half of 2026 with the same period in 2025, shows restaurants were the only major food and beverage category to record a year-on-year decline, with spending falling 3%.
Cafés and coffee shops saw spending rise 5%, whilst food-to-go increased by 2%.
The figures suggest consumers are not giving up eating out but are becoming more selective about how they spend.
Restaurant average transaction values rose 2% over the period, broadly matching inflation, but the overall drop in spend indicates that customers are visiting less frequently.
Coffee shops have gained from the shift. Smaller, fast-expanding brands such as Grind and Blank Street recorded growth of 17% and 13%, respectively, whilst larger operators, including Starbucks and Costa, also increased sales by 6% and 4%, respectively.
Food-to-go showed a more uneven performance. Growth-focused brands such as Wingstop, Farmer J, and Atis reported strong gains, whilst established high street names including KFC, Itsu, Tortilla, and Papa Johns saw spending decline.
The data points to rising competition in the fried chicken market, where expanding chains such as Wingstop are taking share from rivals.
The arrival of Raising Cane’s is expected to add further competition.
CACI’s demographic analysis suggests the shift is being driven more by income levels than geography.
Lower-income groups recorded some of the biggest increases in spend per visit, indicating that some consumers are replacing restaurant meals with café visits or food-to-go purchases rather than stopping eating out altogether.
Amongst the Low Income Living Acorn group, average café and coffee shop transaction values increased by 5.2% YoY, the largest rise of any demographic group.
Low-income- and stretched-society groups also recorded 6% growth in food-to-go transaction values and 2.8% growth in pubs and bars, making them the strongest performers for increases in average spend per visit across categories.
Martha Dobbs, senior consultant at CACI, said the figures show a shift in how consumers judge value when eating and drinking out.
“Consumers are increasingly opting for cafés and more premium quick-service experiences over full-service restaurants, and the less affluent consumers are leading the charge, suggesting many are reallocating budgets rather than cutting back on eating out altogether,” she said.
Restaurants, she added, face pressure to show greater value beyond the meal itself.
Operators may need to focus more on the overall dining experience to encourage customers to return, whilst adapting formats to changing habits.
New concepts such as Pizza Express’ quick-service format in Brixton demonstrate how established brands are experimenting with faster, more accessible models.
