Restaurant lockdown could cost industry over £22bn: analyst

Peter Backman urged operators to adapt.

The temporary closures of restaurants, pubs and other establishments could lead to a sales decline by over £22 billion this year, according to foodservice analyst Peter Backman.

Dining out, he said, would fall by almost 95% for at least four months with a slower upside trajectory.

“Amid the gloom, there is the macabre thought that feeding in the health care sector will actually increase while practically all other sectors will see previously unimaginable declines for several months,” he said.

He expects a “catastrophic hit” tol come in the next quarter (April to June) when the market will be down by 93%, as a result of many closures and consumers simply not being able or allowed to spend money.

"Overall, this year I expect sales in the sector to be down by over £22 billion which, I need hardly add, is going to be an unthinkable hit for the sector and its supply chain," he said.  “While many operators have decided that the best strategy is to close down their business for the duration of COVID-19, for others it’s crucial to adapt and to do whatever’s necessary to keep sales ticking over. Many operators, who have previously steered clear of delivery, are switching to a takeaway and delivery only offer."

Backman also urged operators to take note of falling Google searches for restaurant delivery and increasing ones for retail/supermarket delivery.

“The hospitality industry prides itself on being innovative, adaptable and capable of meeting consumer demand, COVID-19 could be the cause of some seismic shifts for the industry as we know it,” he said.