EXCLUSIVE: Pre-shutdown dining trends show surge in breakfast visits

The NPD Group said this accounted for about half of total QSR growth.

The country’s QSR market seemed to have been experiencing a boom in breakfast prior to the shutdown, with visits during that particular daypart growing by 4.5% in the year ending December 2019 compared to the year prior, new data from the NPD Group has revealed.

The market insights company said this was the fastest increase for the last 5 years and accounted for about 50% of total QSR growth.

In comparison, the rest of the dayparts grew by 0.6% whilst the total QSR market rose by 1.1%.

“The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in widespread foodservice closures and travel restrictions, both of which are hoped to be only temporary. What impact these actions are likely to have on the whole of the breakfast daypart can’t be determined at this time, though we’re keeping a close eye on some sectors of the market such as travel hubs – that is airports, railway stations, motorway service stations and forecourts. What is impossible to tell at this moment is the size of the likely impact," The NPD Group insights director Dominic Allport told QSR Media.

These pre-shutdown trends could be instructive when the market place starts to normalise. NPD cites growing frequency as the biggest driver of the increase in breakfast trips, driving two-thirds of additional trips in Q4 in 2019 compared to the same period in 2018.

New buyers entering the breakfast market is also a cited factor, with a quarter of the growth in breakfast trips coming from incremental buyers.

NPD argues that there is room for chains to enter the breakfast market, which has a 61% penetration rate - referring to persons aged 16 to 64 buying in 2019.

This is lower compared to QSR lunches (84%) and over ten percentage points below dinner occasions in QSRs (72%).

Breakfast also had a 10.4 frequency rate or average trips per buyer in 2019, only two-thirds compared to frequency at QSR lunch (15.2).