Afternoon crowds shift coffee rush hour
The morning rush is now replaced with a more social coffee occasion.
Afternoon and early evening visits are emerging as the new coffee rush hour as café traffic patterns shift beyond the traditional morning peak.
According to Meaningful Vision, bakeries and coffee shops now rank amongst the top three fastest-growing fast-food categories, trailing only chicken chains, which expanded store numbers by 6.4% between January and September 2025. Bakeries and coffee shops followed with growth rates of 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively
Customer traffic mirrors this upward trend, rising by 3% for bakeries and 4% for coffee shops year-on-year.
Notably, the 3 PM to 6 PM period has become the fastest-growing time of day, signalling a shift in consumer routines.
This means that what was once dominated by the morning commute is now being replaced by a later, more social coffee occasion — an afternoon break, post-work meet-up, or early evening catch-up.
Meaningful Vision said that for many operators, this evolving daypart offers a fresh opportunity to capture demand beyond breakfast, tapping into the growing appetite for low-alcohol, community-oriented spaces that rival traditional pubs and bars.
Over the past twelve months, bakery chains opened more than 334 new outlets, making them the largest contributor to overall market growth. Greggs continues to dominate this category, combining brand strength with high footfall, and steady expansion.
Coffee shops also enjoyed significant expansion, adding around 300 new stores across the country. Black Sheep Coffee and Caffè Nero being among the most active operators.
Regional trends
Regional data allows comparisons which reveal growth is unevenly distributed, and highlights the hotspots where new bakery and coffee shops are emerging.
The North West of England contributed 17% of all new openings, followed by East and the East Midlands, each accounting for 13%. Scotland also showed robust activity, contributing 11% of all openings.
Overall, there are now more than 12,000 chained coffee shops and bakeries in the United Kingdom, roughly 1.75 outlets per 10,000 inhabitants.
Density is highest in London, where the ratio climbs to 2.4 outlets per 10,000 people, and 40% higher than the national average, underscoring the capital’s enduring appetite for specialty coffee and artisanal baked goods.
Pricing and value perception
While consumer demand for affordable treats remains solid, pricing pressures continue to mount.
The average price of hot drinks increased by nearly 9% year-on-year in September, surpassing the overall fast-food average increase of 7%. Within this category, both Cappuccino and Latte prices rose by about 9%, with special coffees increasing slightly faster.
Seasonal drinks, such as pumpkin spice or gingerbread lattes, now cost on average 22–25% more than standard offerings, representing an 11% increase compared to a year ago.
Delivery adds another layer of premium pricing. The average markup for drinks ordered through apps is 15%, meaning an in-store coffee costing £3.80 can easily reach £4.35 or more when delivered.
It's also worth noting that delivery prices are growing faster than in-store prices for all products, including coffee. For top coffee items, the difference in price growth is about two percentage points: if in-store coffee prices grew by 10% over the year, delivery prices increased by 12%.
The price gap between fast-food outlets and coffee specialists remains wide. A regular latte costs £1.99 at McDonald’s but climbs to around £3.95–£4.30 at leading coffee chains such as Costa Coffee, Starbucks, Black Sheep Coffee, and Joe & The Juice.
The combination of consistent expansion, regional diversification, and steady afternoon demand shows that the UK’s coffee and bakery sectors continue to find avenues for growth even as broader foodservice trends fluctuate.
“New openings continue to drive traffic growth for fast-food chains,” said Maria Vanifatova, CEO of Meaningful Vision. “Some segments still have significant headroom for growth. For example, coffee shops and bakeries recorded a 2.5% increase in the last 12 months, which means only about 600 new stores, not a particularly large number for a market as sizable as the United Kingdom.
“This signals a maturing market with untapped potential. As competition intensifies and customer habits evolve, success will likely hinge on balancing value with convenience, while ensuring a good experience for customers, from the morning commute to the evening coffee catch-up.”
